How did Tesla go from the fastest growing automaker in the world to a company beleaguered by slowed sales and market share? According to a group of Yale researchers, the answer lies in the strong behavior and behavior of CEO Elon Musk.
Indeed, Tesla has faced headwinds from aging models, increased competition, and a saturated customer base. But analysis of County-Level data shows that its decline is also linked to Musk’s increasingly aggressive actions. The authors of the study estimate that Tesla would have sold between 1 million and 1.26 million in recent years without what they call the “musk patisan effect.”
During the most recent quarter, Tesla profit made 37 percent over the year. Revenue fell in two consecutive quarters this year. (The most recent quarter saw renewed thanks to Tax Credits-deductible purchases.)
Yale researchers say much of Tesla’s decline comes from the fragmentation of its customer base. Drawing on vehicle registration data from S&P’s Global and County-Level Voting records, they found that Tesla’s customer base has shrunk over a long period of time for democracy and the environment.
That started to change in 2022, when musk acquired ux and rolled back content moderation policies. The shift deepened between his involvement in the 2024 US presidential election and his subsequent appointment as the head of the Trump Administration’s Department of Defense (Doge). “Musk’s actions appeal to his extremely loyal customer base,” the authors wrote.
This habit only grows on the freed. Between October 2022 and April 2025, Musk’s behavior cost Tesla between 67 percent and 83 percent of its vehicle sales, according to the study. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, that number jumped 150 percent.
Musk himself acknowledged the backlash. At the time of receiving the income received in April
Fallout has never won even against Tesla’s competitors. The study found that, without Musk’s misbehavior, sales of some EV and hybrid models would have been 17 percent lower in the past three years and 25 percent lower in early 2025, suggesting that his actions helped organic cars.
Musk’s arguments also had unintended policy consequences, the researchers noted. In California, which aims for zero-emission vehicles to make up 25 percent of new sales in 2026, 68 percent in 2030, and 100 percent in 2035, progress has increased. The study estimates that without Musk Partisan’s influence, California would have added 139,700 peak sales in the first quarter of 2025. The fact is that California did not cross 28,000 cars in that agreement to stay on track.
These studies highlight that the CEO’s actions can have an impact on what he says,” the authors conclude.