The murder plot reveals Ted Maher’s pattern from the Monaco fire to the wife’s case: the expert

Ted Maher was convicted of setting the Monaco fire in 1999 that killed billionaire Edmond Safra, but his crime story didn’t end there.

From organized heroes and shifting identities to a later murder-for-hire plot against his wife, the crime expert says Maher’s long arc offers a rare insight into how certain criminals grow rather than evolve.

According to former FBI special agent Jason Pack, Maher’s behavior reflects a well-known pattern among criminals who create problems, seek control and continue to manipulate long after their original crime is exposed.

Maher, an American who claimed to be a Green Beret, was a private nurse hired to care for Safra when a fire broke out inside Safra’s heavily guarded Monaco gas station in the early hours of Dec. 3, 1999. Safra and another nurse, Vivian Torrente, died of smoke inhalation after locking themselves in the bathroom of what was believed to be a double safe room.

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Maher survived and initially told authorities that two robbers armed with knives had broken into the apartment — a claim that Monaco officials later said could not be verified, according to the New York Times.

After days of cross-examination, Maher admitted to police that he started the fire by burning a basket of papers, Monaco’s chief prosecutor Daniel Serdet said at the time, The Times reported. Maher told investigators he didn’t intend to kill anyone and said he made up the story of the robber to “get attention,” Serdet said.

Serdet told reporters that Maher is jealous of the other seven Safra nurses and hopes that his employer will give him permission to carry out a rescue plan. “He wanted to be a hero,” Serdet said, according to The Times.

Public Prosecutor Daniel Serdet spoke to reporters on Jan. 22, 2003, at the Palace of Justice in Monaco, following the escape of Ted Maher and his Italian cellmate, Luigi Ciardelli. Maher, an American nurse who was sentenced to 10 years in prison for starting the fire that killed Lebanese bank manager Edmond Safra and his nurse, was caught in solitary confinement hours after she escaped. (Vanina Lucchesi/AFP via Getty Images)

Investigators say Maher cut himself twice with his knife — once in the thigh and in the stomach — before seeking help from the building’s maintenance staff, The Times reported. Officials said Safra and Torrente could have escaped the fire but remained inside the locked bathroom because Safra feared the attackers were still inside the apartment.

Safra’s death shocked the world’s banks and sparked speculation that he may have been targeted for his business. Newspapers around the world are expressing the belief that Safra, a Lebanese-born banker, may have been killed because of his financial ties, including dealings involving Russian investors, The Times reported.

Investigators eventually rejected those theories. Serdet said Maher held his own and said there was “no serious conspiracy” behind the fire, according to The Times.

The fire came at an important time in Safra’s life. According to The Times, he was suffering from Parkinson’s disease and was preparing to retire as part of a deal to sell his banking empire, including the Republic National Bank of New York, which is about to be liquidated.

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Photo of Lebanese-born banker and financier Edmond Safra sitting behind his desk in the 1990s. The painting on the wall shows his father, Jacob Safra. (Agence France Presse/Getty Images)

His death marked the biggest loss for the banking titan. He was not only one of the world’s richest bankers, but a major global philanthropist whose foundation funded education, medical research, humanitarian aid and religious institutions in more than 40 countries – a legacy that continues decades after his death.

According to The Times, Safra believes that he has powerful enemies, concerns caused by his banking work and cooperation with the American authorities, which has contributed to strict security measures inside the Monaco bathroom.

Safra’s security concerns were based on real events, according to Vanity Fair. Dominick Dunne, who has written extensively on the case, said Safra notified US authorities of Russian organized crime related to his banking business – a move that left him deeply alarmed.

“He turned himself in to the FBI,” Dunne said on “48 Hours.” “He was very confused about his safety.”

Pack said the environment is important to understanding how Maher’s story began. In his opinion, Maher adjusted his story of the robbery to suit Safra’s fears, which made this account first heard by investigators and the public.

“When a man spends decades trying to sell the ‘hero’ story,” Pack said, “eventually you have to stop listening to the music and start looking at the statistics.”

A new Netflix documentary, “Murder in Monaco,” has renewed interest in the case and Maher’s claims of innocence. But Pack said the most revealing evidence was not in reliving that night in 1999, but in the decades of behavior that followed.

Pack said Maher’s behavior since the Monaco case undermined his allegations of being a compulsive or mysterious person.

In 2002, Maher was convicted of arson causing death and sentenced to 10 years in prison. After serving nearly eight years in prison, he returned to the United States, changed his name and later became involved in other crimes.

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Ted Maher, a former U.S. soldier, arrives at a Monaco courthouse on November 21, 2002, for the start of his trial in the 1999 arson attack that killed billionaire banker Edmond Safra. (Pascal Guyot/AFP via Getty Images)

In 2025, Maher was convicted in New Mexico of murdering his estranged wife in what prosecutors said was a fentanyl overdose.

“You don’t go from ‘mysterious hero’ to ‘killer for hire’ by accident,” Pack said. “That kind of behavior reveals a consistent operating mode.”

Pack described what he called a pattern of problems and deception. In Monaco, he said, Maher made a fire to create a heroic rescue mission. Decades later, prosecutors said he was planning another event, this time for a dangerous financial gain.

Pack also pointed to Maher’s decision to reinvent himself under a new name after prison as further evidence of deception rather than rehabilitation.

A general view was taken on December 8, 1999, of the Monaco prison where the American nurse of the late billionaire banker Edmond Safra, Ted Maher, was arrested after being charged with arson. Maher, who has been employed by Safra for five months, told the investigators that he made up a story where armed robbers stabbed him and then set fire to the bank’s kitchen. (Pascal Guyot/AFP via Getty Images)

“When a person changes their identity to escape their future, that behavior defines their character,” Pack said.

Maher has said for years that his confession in Monaco was coerced. But Pack said Maher’s latest actions undermine that history.

“It’s easy to blame foreign police when you’re the only one talking,” said Pack. “But if you’re caught planning to kill in a New Mexico prison cell, the victim’s story is over.”

Maher is currently in custody in New Mexico and is reportedly battling terminal throat cancer. Pack said that while only Maher knew exactly what happened in Monaco, his subsequent behavior gave a clearer picture than any simulation.

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“If you want to understand who Ted Maher is,” Pack said, “don’t watch the documentary. Watch the sentencing report.”

Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicide and immigration crime. Send news tips to stepheny.price@fox.com.