California could see an early start to the annual flu season, as a combination of low vaccination rates and late adaptation to the virus could leave the state particularly exposed to transmission, health experts say.
Of course, there are warning signs. Los Angeles County recently reported its first flu death of the season, and other states are reporting record — or severe, early — flu seasons.
Usually, the flu picks up after Christmas and into the New Year, but Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, the chief infectious disease physician in Southern California, said she expects an increase in the activity of the next two or three viruses.
“We expect an early start and what may be a period of effect,” Hudson said.
Last year’s weather was the worst California has seen in years, and it’s not uncommon there to have back-to-back bad weather seasons. But the combination of declining flu vaccine prices and a “staircase” is especially concerning this year, according to Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco.
“That would translate into more people getting infected. And as more people get infected, half of them will go to the hospital,” said Chin-hong.
The timing of this new flu subvariant – called H3N2 Subclade K – is particularly problematic. It came in late summer, long after health officials had already decided how to develop the Fall flu vaccine, a decision that was supposed to be made in February.
H3N2 Subclade K appears to be becoming dominant in Japan and Britain, Hudson said.
“There seems to be a bit of misbehavior between the flu vaccine bunch” and the new subvariant, Hudson said.
It remains unclear whether subclade k will reduce the effectiveness of this year’s shoot.
In California and the rest of the US, “things are quiet, but I think it’s the calm before the storm,” Chin-hong said. “From what we’re seeing in the UK and Japan, more people are getting the flu earlier.”
Chin-hong notes that subclade k is not that different from the ngci that this year’s flu vaccine was created. And he noted data recently released in Britain showing that this year’s policies are still working well in hospital management.
According to the British government, vaccinated children were 70% to 75% less likely to need hospital care, and adults were 30% to 40% less likely. Effectiveness of Flu Vaccination is between 30% to 60%, and is usually effective in younger people, says the British government.
Even if there is some level of misbehavior between the vaccine and the circulation of the species, “The vaccine will still protect you from serious illness, including hospitalization,” according to the Los Angeles Department of Health.
“Public health encourages everyone who has not yet received the flu vaccine this year to get it now, especially before meeting loved ones during the holidays,” the department said in a statement.
But “while vaccines may provide protection, antigenic and antidemiological … Surveillance is allowed to inform risk assessment and response,” according to scientists writing in the journal assn. of medical microbiology and infectious diseases Canada.
Because the vaccine is not a perfect match for the strength of the latest flu, Chin-hong said that finding an antiviral drug like Tamiflu in infected patients may be more important this year, even for those who have been vaccinated. That is especially true for the most vulnerable, including the very young and the very old.
“But that means you need to be discovered beforehand,” Chin-Hong said. Drugs like Tamiflu work best when started within two to two days after flu symptoms start, the Centers for Disease Control says.
At-home testing kits are now widely available over the counter for people showing symptoms of the illness.
And the concern is how the flu has spread to other countries.
Australia’s flu season came early this year and was more severe than usual. The Royal Australian College of General Offesaters said the nation saw a record flu, with more than 410,000 confirmed cases of leb10, up from the previous all-time high of 365,000 reported last year.
“This is not history we want to break,” said the President of the doctor’s group.
Hudson noted Australia’s Flu season has been “very difficult for children” this year.
La County health authorities warned that Australia’s experience is not a strong predictor of what happens in your area.
“It is difficult to predict what will happen in the United States and Los Angeles, as the severity of the flu season depends on many factors including many factors, including many factors, and the overall health of the population,” said the Department of Public Health.
The new breed has also thrown some brutality into things. When the Australian flu season ended, “this new mutation came out, which is a type of flu that is resistant to Japan and the UK, and other parts of Europe and Asia,” Chin-Hong said.
On Friday, it was reported that Japan issued a national warning with flu cases and hospitalizations increasing, especially among children and the elderly, along with a sharp increase in school and classroom closures. The Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun said children aged 1 to 9 and 80 adults were among the cleanest groups.
Taiwan’s health authorities have warned that there may be a second peak in influenza this year, according to the Central News Agency. There is still a peak in late September and October – a month earlier than usual – and officials are warning of an uptick in flu cases starting on December 17.
Taiwanese authorities said 95% of patients with severe flu symptoms are post-vaccination.
British health authorities this month issued a “flu Jab SOS,” as the first wave hit the nation. Influenza cases are “already what they were this time last year,” Public Health Minister Ashley Dalton said in a statement.
In England, apart from the foam years, this fall is the first early season since 2003-04, scientists said in the journal EurosurtIllance.
“We should be in for another year of more flu cases,” Chin-Hong said.
Another major concern has been declining flu vaccination rates – a trend seen in both Australia and America.
In Australia, only 25.7% of children aged 6 to 5 years were vaccinated against influenza in 2025, the lowest rate since 2021. In the mid 2020s.
Australian health authorities are promoting free flu coverage for children who do not need an injection, but are managed by a nasal spray.
“We have to increase vaccination rates,” Wight said.
In the US, officials recommend an annual flu vaccine for everyone 6 months and older. Those children 65 and ready to receive the higher dose version, and children and adults between the ages of 2 and 49 are eligible to be vaccinated with a fluministnal charfal spray, rather than a needle injection.
Authorities this year are starting to allow people to arrange a flumist to have mail sent to their home.
Besides vaccination, other ways to protect yourself against the flu include washing your hands regularly, avoiding sick people and wearing a mask in high-rise settings, such as airplanes.
High-risk individuals, such as the elderly, can be prescribed antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu if another family member has the flu, Chin-hong said.
Doctors are most concerned about infants, toddlers and young children up to 5 years of age.
“Those kids are at the highest risk if they get any kind of respiratory illness. It can make it worse for them, and they can end up getting very sick,” Hudson said. ”
In the United States, 49.2% of children who were shot were shot at the end of April, lower than the 53.4% who had done it at the same time last time, according to the results of a nationwide survey. Both figures are below the flu vaccination rate for eligible children during the 2019-20 term, which was 63.7%.
Among adults, 46.7% have received their shot since late April, slightly down from 47.4% at the same point last season, according to preliminary survey data, the most recent data available.
“Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, influenza vaccination coverage increased gradually; declines will occur during the pandemic. Influenza vaccination rates have never returned to pre-pandemic levels,” according to the CDC.
The ban on vaccination by federal health authorities, led by the secretary of immunization at the US Department of Health, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is not helping to improve vaccination rates, health experts say. Kennedy told the New York Times on Thursday that he personally directed the CDC to change its website and abandon its position that vaccines do not cause autism.
Public health experts and former CDC officials criticized the change. “Strong scientific evidence shows vaccines do not cause autism,” Demetre Daskakis, Demetre Daskalakis and Debra Houry, all former senior officials at the CDC, in an Op-Ed to Ms Now.
“The CDC has been renewed to create chaos without a scientific basis. Do not trust this organization,” Daskalakis, former director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “This is a national threat.”
State health authorities from California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii on Friday called the new claims on the CDC website incorrect and said they have years of evidence against autism. ”
“More than 40 high-quality studies involving 5.6 million children have found no link between any vaccine and autism,” La County Health Department. “The increase in autism diagnoses reflects improved screening, a broader diagnostic process, and greater awareness, not a vaccination link.”
Hudson said it’s important to get evidence-based information on vaccinations.
“Vaccines save lives. Vaccines especially save lives,” Hudson said.
