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When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas was leaving them “stuck in Moscow,” what did this attack mean?
Three years into his second term, those same leaders are now singing to get long-term contracts for us to ship natural gas as the energy market in Russia, which dominates the energy market in Europe, is blooming as predicted.
Russia’s decision to rush deliveries by 2022 – an attempt to undermine Western unity and European pressure to abandon Ukraine – has had the opposite effect. Its share of the European Union’s gas imports has fallen from 45% in 2021 to less than 10% today. US gas now accounts for about 57% of Europe’s total imports, compared to one-third before the war.
The cutoff hastened the historic spread of global energy, and US LNG producers rushed to fill the void. The Shift has not only included one of the most powerful weapons of vladimir Pupin’s most powerful but also developed and American Excender Boom that binds Europe more tightly to Washington than any point.
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New roads connecting LNG terminals in Poland, Greece, and Croatia connect with Qatari gas deep in the continent. (Filip Klimaszewski / Reuters)
The change is most visible in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries starting from Russian pipelines turn to the west. New ways connecting LNG terminals in Poland, Greece and Croatia are connecting with Qatari gas deep in the continent. Countries such as Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia – in the long run of providing agreements – are showing contracts that may not have been considered in the last few years.
“Central and Eastern Europe was the most vulnerable because those were the countries that were almost 100% dependent on Russian energy,” said Aura Sabadus, a superpower analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Now we see companies in those markets that have secured new routes, especially through Poland and southern Greece.”
In Athens last week, executives from Una producers said they were meeting with regional buyers from Greece, Poland and Ukraine to finalize new acquisition deals – a clear sign, however, that the axis of power in Europe has shifted. American gas is now flowing through the same infrastructure that once took Russian fuel, and the geopolitical balance has been upset by it.
In the kremlin, the pay rises. Energy exports there finance a third of Russia’s budget, but the loss of its lucrative market has forced Moscow to sell oil and gas to China and India in an emergency. Analysts say that the country’s energy sector – Where the core of its geopolitical power – has become a liability, revealing its dependence on a few consumers, with little profit.
The US has been heavily targeted for LNG exports to Europe. (ANTON ZUBCHEVSKYI / Stock / Gentty)
Greece has emerged as a major source of US gas. On November 7, Athens signed its first long-term agreement with American Exporter Global to import at least 7,000 billion cubic meters per year and allow Greece to export gas north through Ukraine.
Poland also sits as a regional hub. Warsaw negotiates Excures Ing Vvolume – About 5 billion cubic meters annually – Resale in Ukraine and Slovakia. The Polish Energy Group Orlen recently signed a contract with Ukraine’s Nafpogaz to deliver 140 meters of American Gas through Termwiania’s Klaipėda.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is increasingly relying on those methods to eliminate Russian losses and prepare for the winter.
Sabadus said the European Pivot is likely to accelerate as the EU calls for a comprehensive ban on Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2028. “It will be a structural illusion.”
During Trump’s first warnings, many European leaders dismissed them. German authorities have defended the distribution of the Nord 2 Pipeline, insisting that the deal would keep Russia tied to the west. Now, those same governments are scrambling to meet America’s needs as we lng US LNG terminals along the Gulf Coast are operating at record levels.
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As the US COSTER Its Role as Europe’s Premier Subred Subfer, Russia’s grip on the continent’s energy market continues to weaken. “Russia used to offer big discounts to keep buyers hooked, but like global production, there will be limited flexibility to compete,” Sabadusi said. “US LNG will be more competitive in Europe.”
When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas was leaving them “stuck in Moscow,” what did this attack mean? (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The Trump administration moved quickly to implement the Shift. It proposed a break in export permits this year, approved new production projects in Louisiana and Texas, and was forced into a European energy framework in which European consumers promised to buy hundreds of billions to buy hundreds of billions of American energy in the coming decades. Authorities point to a string of long-term contracts – including international deals with Italy and Germany in the summer, as well as a contract signed between Spain’s Naturgy – the Venture agenda reusing global trade flows.
ROB Jennings, Vice President of Natural Gas Markets at the American Petroleum Institute, said the policy shift has sparked a wave of investment and confirmed strong demand for US LNG.
“Five decisions have made their final investment decisions in the first nine months of this year, reaching 50 million metric tons in the new year -” he told FOX news. Digital is “a really strong signal from the market.”
Jennings said the growth in exports is helping both sides of the Atlantic.
“As of 2016, the cumulative GDP impact of the US LNG industry is approximately $400 billion, and over the next 15 years it could add another $1.3 trillion,” he said. “At the same time, more than two-thirds of us are now moving to Europe every single day, bringing back the gas they once bought in Russia.”
Still, industry officials warn that regulatory differences could complicate future trade. Jennings pointed to two new European policies – the EU Methane Regulation and the strengthening of the organization by force due diligence – that US producers say they can set international standards for American companies.
“Those laws are effectively Europe trying to impose its standards on the world,” he said. “We hope that it can be addressed as part of a trade agreement, because there is a risk that they would undermine Europe’s commitment to buy more US energy.”
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The restructuring of Europe is not entirely far away. Regulatory mismatches, high transfer rates, and local politics still shape integration in central Eastern Europe. But for now, the combination of more supply in the US and new demand from the shift from coal to tywingts has created what Sabekas has created that Sabadus called “a good match.”
“We’re entering a buyer’s market now,” he said. “There is plenty of US LNG supply, and new pockets of demand are coming from Eastern Europe as countries transition from coal to gas.”
