As Brussels moves forward with a new wave of expansion, the numbers behind its European trade with its chosen countries reveal a story of dependence, asymmetry, but also great power.
Official EU members are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Kosovo is treated as a potential candidate.
Together, they cover a diverse sweep of geography from long coastlines to lush forests and some of Europe’s most productive farms – and including some of Europe’s smallest.
But while trade flows between the Bloc and future members are increasing, the relationship remains unequal, with more EU-produced goods finding a market than those originating in member states.
According to the European Balkans’s 2025 Western Balkans Trade Vertheet, the total trade in goods between the EU and the six Western partners reached €83.6 billion in 2024, up 28.6% from 2021.
Exports from the EU to the region stood at €49.06bn, while imports from the western balkans amounted to
The dominance of the EU as a market is surprising. It accounts for approximately 62% of all Balkan Trade, and the region represents a whopping 1.7% of the EU’s external trade.
In Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania, between three and three quarters of all exports go to EU countries.
“All the countries (chosen), with the exception of North Macedonia, which means that they insist on trade with the EU, means that they import more from the EU than they export there,” explained Branimir Jovanović, an expert with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (Wiiw).
“These are economies with small productive sectors. They don’t produce enough for what they need, so they have to import, and they also don’t produce enough to export,” said Jovanović.
In the last ten years, North Macedonia has become a production base for elements that go directly to the EU industry and are ready for special access to the EU market and stability (iSAA).
The result is that North Macedonia can sell a large share of what it does directly to the EU without being hindered by technical standards.
This is very different from, say, Albania, which depends more on raw materials and low-quality textiles, or Montenegro, which depends on the demand for goods.
It’s different from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, which still import a lot of high-value machinery from the EU and send a mixed, low-cost basket back.
Ukraine and Moldova import the EU’s top services, vehicles and industrial machinery, while exporting mainly low-margin goods. In short, they provide green building materials and basic products, and the EU provides the technology to produce them.
The western balkans trade with the EU under the SAAS, gradually removing tariffs and harmonizing national laws with EU laws as part of a systematic legal process. In contrast, Ukraine and Moldova operate under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAS), comprehensive deals that have opened up large parts of the EU’s single market in exchange for much of the EU’s regulatory framework.
For Essure, SAAS is a membership option, while DCFTAS offers EU market integration without full membership. This distinction, however, is blurred – with Brussels showing that it believes that full membership in Ukraine and Moldova after the full invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“Countries exporting to the EU are faced with many collective barriers to taxes. Economists call these technical barriers to trade, such as phytosanitary standards,” explained Jovanović.
So even if they produce something that is wanted in the EU, it never reaches the market because these companies may not have the necessary certificates.
“Therefore, although unemployment has decreased, there is no real progress in development. There is a real risk of a middle-class entry, in the low sense of assembly development, with low development and limited technological development and innovation.”
The same debate now extends to Ukraine, which had officially opened EU talks in 2024. Despite the war, trade between the EU and Ukraine has ended. Eurostat data shows Bloc Transported Bloc Transported € 42.8bn worth of goods in Ukraine in 2024 and imported € 24.5bn, yielding € 18.3bn rising for the EU.
The composition of that trade has changed significantly since the Russian invasion. Agricultural goods still dominate overseas exports but the EU has turned its way to recycling materials and machinery.
Neighboring Moldova, another country up for election in 2023, shows similar patterns. The EU is Moldova’s largest trading partner, accounting for 54% of its total trade in goods by 2024. Some 65.6% of Moldovans export to the EU.
Trade turnover reached almost €7.5bn last year, with EU Extraditions in Moldova reaching €5.1bn and imports within €2.4bn.
Related
The western Balkans have made significant progress since the early 2000s, but full integration with the European Union remains a distant goal, the OECD’s Economic Convergence Sconeboard 2025 warned.
Six economies have doubled their output in two decades – but the region still comes to about 40% of the EU average. At current growth rates, full convergence will not occur until 2074.
Discharge of the district per person (with energy recovery rates
That means that the western balkans are closing the gap, but less painfully, and the strong growth rates are offset by much higher productivity and the stock of payments within the EU.
Growth, by itself, is not enough to change. The Western Balkans need a different growth driven by new skills, competencies, and high-quality industries.
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Infrastructure and manufacturing are the region’s weakest links.
According to the OECD report: “Inadequate quality and integration of critical public transport infrastructure can be a significant obstacle to high economic growth … as inadequate transport networks can severely restrict the connection of producers and consumers to global markets.”
As for Ukraine, its economy has been transformed after a historic shock, but the damage is staggering. Most of the population has been displaced and large infrastructures have been destroyed.
Output from Fell -28.8% in 2022 rebounded to +5.5% in 2023. Public funds are stretched to the limit by defense requirements, preventing integration with EU member states.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) brings factories and jobs to candidate countries, as well as building stronger links with existing EU member states. However, Jovanović argued that this did not lead to ‘structural change’ in the nations.
An example can be seen, for example, in Serbia – where car plants are increasing work but the country still imports high-tech equipment.
When FDI is concentrated in low-level stages of production and local supplier bases remain narrow, wage gains are limited and more value is invested abroad.
“There is a problem with how FDI is perceived: Politicians still see it as the key – Sometimes even the only way – to develop the economy, while Jovanović.
“Therefore, a change in the economic model for a long time – in a selective way towards FDI, focused on the highest and highest investment and domestic policies with industrial and innovation policies,” said Jovanović.
The argument is clear: While FDI raises employment and links the economy to EU markets, it becomes transformative only when it improves the local production base.
Besides, the countries that are chosen at the risk of a meeting platform and not a full partner in European value chains.
Ultimately, values tell stories of success and caution. They show integration without change: Exports are open, factories are open, but production and infrastructure are still infrastructure.
The next phase will need to focus on quality, not just quantity, say experts. This means that the selected FDI is to improve the chains, the target is to have a single access combined with changes, and to invest quickly in skills, energy, and transportation.
If Brussels and voters can change the meeting to risk, the gap can reduce in a generation. If not, the countries you choose risk working for a reliable rather than a prosperous partner.
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