Employment will remain ‘lost’ next year due to trade war, data suggests – nationally

Canadians struggling to find stable employment or change jobs may face an uphill battle over the next 12 months as the trade war keeps many businesses neutral and the job market “.”

A new report from the Bank of Canada shows a large proportion of businesses say they are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than investing in expanding their operations and hiring new employees.

According to the Central Bank Outlook business survey for the third quarter of 2025, many businesses that say they expect “weak” demand for their products and services are expected to participate in hiring new employees.

“Hiring targets are always reduced. Many firms do not plan to increase the size of their workforce in the next 12 months. The continued uncertainty of taxes and several small pressures and small pressures in Canada need to add workers,” said Canada Caci.

“Businesses do not expect sales growth to strengthen in the next year as the effects related to cases continue to hold back demand. Firms say this is the most expected weakness in trade,” said Canada Canada.

Some of these “spillover effects” include weak spending by customers such as cash renewals, business trips and events, as well as concerns about consumer spending in the next 12 months as access to cash remains a struggle for many, according to the survey report.

The Central Bank also points to a weak outlook for the housing sector as one of the consequences of the trade war, which has disrupted demand for businesses and their services. This can include the demand for home repairs and real estate development.

The tariffs imposed by the United States in particular meant higher costs for certain goods and services, which led businesses and the global economy, including Canada, to find other trading partners.

Payment can also be affected. Despite a tough job market to break into, currently employed Canadians may find their wages and salaries will not increase significantly over the past year.

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The Bank of Canada says businesses participating in the Quiter Survey Conveyary expect to increase their workers’ wages by 20 percent on average over the next 12 months.

Canada’s unemployment rate was recorded at 7.1 percent in September and has risen from 6.9 percent in June as businesses braced for the prospect of recovery, particularly in manufacturing.

While many businesses say they plan to temporarily freeze hiring rather than lay off workers, the Bank of Canada has singled out the aluminum and steel sector as at high risk of tariffs.

“Corporate Planning’s Role in Collective Labor Planning continues to do so [the] last quarter. However, special consultations this quarter with firms in the aluminum and steel sector revealed that the effects of the increase in US prices are leading to a significant recovery,” Canada Canada said.

“Canadian exporters of steel and aluminum products that are currently facing US tariffs have reported particularly misleading,” Canada said.

“While some basic aluminum sales have been redirected to Europe, these supporters view this strategy as an unsustainable alternative to the US market due to concerns about long-term profitability.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney is still working with US President Donald Trump on a trade agreement, with the aim of reducing or eliminating Canadian tariffs that have been set repeatedly.

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